Carlton v Port Adelaide betting preview.
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Australian Rules Football is probably a strange game to many readers. With 18 players per team on an oval shaped playing arena that varies in size from venue to venue, the game is certainly unique. The AFL (Australian Football League) has 18 teams based in 5 states of Australia - 10 of these teams are based in the state of Victoria. These 10 teams play their home games primarily at two venues - The MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground) and Etihad Stadium. One is outdoors (the MCG) one is indoors (Eithad). The Dimensions of each ground are different (Eithad is much narrower).
There is very little betting data freely available on the AFL. Historical lines, Totals and trends are not something that bookmakers or other services provide as in the USA. Those who have their own databases have a significant edge in the Australian betting environment. I have attached a few files showing some betting data on this game. One table shows the variance in the offensive and defensive outputs for Carlton in each of the past few years - They are have been 25+ points per game worse on average in every season from 2010 onwards when playing at Etihad Stadium - the site of their game against Port Adelaide this weekend.
My database shows distinct advantages / disadvantages for certain teams at Etihad Stadium. Carlton is one team that plays home games at both venues. There is just under 2 miles (3.2km) between Etihad Stadium and the MCG, however from 2010 onwards Carlton are 11-20 SU & 8-23 ATS when playing at Etihad Stadium. When they play at the MCG in that time they are 19-10-1 SU and ATS. They have continued to be overvalued and under perform at the indoors stadium.
Conversely, Port Adelaide (a non Victoria team) are travelling interstate here. In their last 19 games away from their home venue AAMI Stadium, Port Adelaide are just 5-14 SU but a fantastic 15-4 ATS. This is a lopsided number that shows they are clearly undervalued away from home. They have covered 8 of the last 10 away including 3 times this year.
Carlton are off a 6 day Break – Port Adelaide are off an 8 day break. Carlton were run of their feet last Monday night and worked very very hard to get back into the game when they lost two players to injury in the first quarter. They are now without Gibbs, Carrazzo, Yarran, Ellard and Betts. These players are Midfielders, Ball Carriers and a small but important forward. That is a cluster of injuries and effects the run of Carlton. Port Adelaide were ordinary against Richmond but can improve. Their Style is not dissimilar to StKilda who beat Carlton last week, an uncontested high possession game does not suit the Carlton without their speedy midfielders.
I like Port Adelaide to go very close to winning this game. They have been under valued this year (6-1 ATS) against an over valued Carlton (2-5 ATS) and when Carltons statistics at this venue are taken into consideration, there is certaibly value in the Port Adelaide line.
Port Adelaide +19.5 (-110 / $1.91)
