April 19, 2013
Some great betting opportunities present themselves in the NBA playoffs. I talked to Zach Franzi, a professional bettor for the past twenty five years in Las Vegas to get his perspective on the upcoming first round and some potential series bets.
Franzi looks to the defensive side of the ball first. He looks for teams with solid defensive statistics, strong coaching and, above all, an attitude of commitment to defense. He wants teams that can shut a team down and create stops at the end of a game, and do so without fouling.
Boston Celtics/ New York Knicks
The Knicks have a tremendous offense, led by Carmelo Anthony. The problem, as Franzi sees it, is they are a little soft.
“Tyson Chandler is the only Knicks player that gives them a tough physical presence.”
Chandler has missed 16 of the Knicks last 20 games. He says 100% physically. Franzi is skeptical. “Of course he’s going to say that.”
Chandler was a key ingredient to the Dallas Mavericks team led by Dirk Nowitzky that won a championship in 2011. Jason Kidd was another key asset to that Mavs team who is also now a Knick. While Kidd doesn’t provide the physical toughness Chandler does, he does give them a mental toughness and veteran leadership the team has been lacking in recent seasons.
Still, Franzi thinks the Celtics have an edge. “The Knicks will try to outscore the Celtics. That might not bode well for a tough playoff matchup with a team like the Celtics.”
The series opens in New York, but comes to Boston for game 3. With all the drama the city has been through in the past few days, the scene should be highly charged to supply the Celtics with a huge emotional lift. This is also likely the last hurrah for a veteran squad led by Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. They know it a well as anyone. Beating them at home will be difficult.
The Knicks are 7 point favorites in game 1. Many things can change as the series progresses, but Franzi thinks the line for game 3 in Boston will be Celtics -3.5, a pretty big swing but perhaps a good spot for the Celtics.
The series price has the Knicks favored -380/+300. Franzi is passing for now, but is leaning toward taking an in series price on the Celtics if Chandler does not look 100%.
Amar’e Stoudemire will miss this series, but the Knicks have played better in his absence.
Golden State Warriors/ Denver Nuggets
Expect an exciting series. Both teams are offensive minded, though both teams have improved defensively since the All Star break. Denver is first in the league in scoring, Golden State is 7th. Denver 23rd in points allowed, Golden State 19th. Denver sports the league’s best home record, 38-3. Golden State is making only its second trip to the playoffs in 19 years. They probably have the most loyal fans in the NBA.
Despite the Nuggets great home record, Franzi thinks the Warriors can steal game 1 in Denver with an injured Kenneth Faried highly questionable for the Nuggets. Both teams rebound exceptionally well, Denver on offense and Golden State on the defensive glass. A chink in either’s armor could open the door for their opponent. Faried could be that key piece that goes missing.
If the series turns into a scoring fest, the Warriors have the two best offensive players in the series in Steph Curry and David Lee. Meanwhile the Nuggets best offensive player, Danilo Gallinari is out for the series with a torn ACL.
Many people around the league are rooting for Nuggets coach George Karl, including Franzi. (Full disclosure, Zach and I once met Karl in a bar and had a great time with the coach. But that’s a story for later.) However, Franzi regards the inexperienced coach of the Warriors, Mark Jackson, as the superior defensive coach.
As of yet, Franzi has yet to make a play, but is leaning toward taking the Warriors with a generous price of +360.
Chicago Bulls/Brooklyn Nets
“Deron Williams is a talented point guard, but a little showy,” Franzi said. “I don’t like his style.”
Williams has found himself with as many critics as fans. Although Williams himself is 5th in the NBA in assists, the team is 27th. In other words, if he doesn’t facilitate, no one does. Is he the chicken or the egg? Either way, a large amount of the offensive game will go through the point guard, who will have an advantage over the Bulls Nate Robinson. “Williams is just too big for him,” Franzi said.
Since defense is such a high priority for Franzi, the Bulls are the team he was leaning to. However, one the keys to that defense, Joakim Noah, is now doubtful in game 1 of the series. “That makes a huge difference,” said Franzi. “l still think (Nets coach PJ) Carlesimo is going to have a tough time creating matchup difficulties for (Bulls coach) Tom Thibodeau’s defense. Thibodeau is one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA.”
The Nets Brook Lopez has come on this season, particularly in his offensive production. Without Noah, Carlesimo’s job will be made much easier.
With Noah’s injury, Franzi is sitting this one out so far. If Noah comes back healthy, Franzi will look for an opportunity to play the Bulls in what he sees to be a nip and tuck series. The best number right now on the Bulls series is +130, not enough for Franzi to take with Noah so questionable.
Memphis Grizzles/ Los Angeles Clippers
“The Clippers can get selfish,” Franzi said. “They are extremely talented but poorly coached.”
The Clippers have certainly been in the headlines and on Sports Center much more than their opponent. But the Grizzlies have won by Franzi’s favorite criteria, defense. They have surrendered the fewest points in the NBA, 89.3 per game. They also rank 3rd in creating turnovers. Offensively, they are low scoring but balanced. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley average double figures along with Zach Randolph. After that it is all hands on deck with multiple contributors.
The Clippers finally have a solid team around point guard Chris Paul and forward Blake Griffin. Jamal Crawford is a favorite for the Sixth Man of the Year award. Caron Butler, Matt Barnes and DeAndre Jordan also provide scoring.
“The Grizzlies need Zach Randolph to play big in order to win. I’m not sure he can do that. He has had his lapses,“said Franzi. “I give the Clippers the nod in both talent and depth, plus Chris Paul is tremendous. But the Grizzlies have been a coming team the last couple years. I wanted to take a higher price, but I would take Memphis if I was forced to make a play.”
Franzi can take +150 or more right now. My hunch is he’ll take that if nothing better appears.
Atlanta Hawks/Indiana Pacers
I’ve known Zach Franzi a long time. Although I know him to be a dog player, he will take a favorite if he sees the value there. This is one of those times.
“I really like this Pacer team. They have good size and just too much defense for Atlanta,” said Franzi.
The Pacers can brag of some of the best defensive numbers in the league. They are second in points allowed with 90.7. Opponent’s field goal percentage is the worst in the league both overall and from 3 point range. They also lead the league in rebounding.
“I give the Pacers the second best shot to win the East behind Miami, which ain’t much,” he laughed. “But, still.”
The fact that the Pacers have been knocked as a serious contender because of a lack of a ‘go to’ guy doesn’t bother him. “You never know,” Franzi said. ‘Sometimes someone emerges during a series.”
Paul George might not appear to be a premier player to casual fans but he has become a real offensive leader for the Pacers. George Hill also puts the ball in the hoop as does David West, my nomination for the reincarnation of one of my favorite old timers, Paul Silas. West is one of those guys that will do anything to help you win.
The Hawks aren’t a bad team, but this is where their season has often ended, and there is a strong possibility it will do so again. Their lineup is dotted with some nice players like Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jeff Teague. Louis Williams was lost for the season and might not start next year on time either. It just won’t be enough. Franzi is looking to lay the cheapest price he can, -330 would definitely get him to bite.
Los Angeles Lakers/ San Antonio Spurs
“The Lakers have no shot,” Franzi said.
I had to laugh. It seems there are these veteran teams who everyone thinks has a chance to make amends for a horrible season with a deep playoff run. It will happen in one sport or another every ten years or so and it will stick in the public’s mind so strongly that it creates an illusion that these teams are always dangerous. Guess what? They are rarely dangerous.
“Gasol and Howard’s numbers will likely improve with Kobe out, but you don’t just lose a player who you revolve so much around and beat a team like the Spurs,” Franzi said. “San Antonio is limping in and might be vulnerable a little later, but not this series.”
Franzi still wasn’t too anxious to lay -800 or more, but no chance he was tempted to take a price on the Lakers either.
Milwaukee Bucks/ Miami Heat
Franzi just laughed. “I’m not going to lay the -20000.” That’s $2,000 to win $10. I don’t think he needs the sawbuck that bad.
Houston Rockets/ Oklahoma City Thunder
This is another series where Franzi sees no chance for the underdog.
“Their (Houston’s) defense is awful. I guess they could win a game because of Hardin going off on his old team, but that’s the best they can do,” Franzi said.
Statistically the Rockets have the worst defense in the playoffs. They also turn the ball over at the highest rate.
“I like OKC to take the West. San Antonio has a legit shot, but I don’t like the way they are playing right now. Denver could be tough, too. With that home court advantage they have to win a game or two on the road, which is very possible. Of course, Miami is coming out of the East unless the Pacers can pull a miracle.
Personally, I think I’ll follow Zach and play the Grizzlies and Pacers. I’ll watch to see how the Celtics/Knicks and Bulls/Nets series develop, with an eye on taking the dogs in each. I’ll need Tyson Chandler to be less than recovered and Joachim Noah to be healthy to pull the trigger on unbuckling my bankroll. I see his point on playing the Warriors, but I have less confidence than he does in that play.