The Preakness brags about having the one thing the Kentucky Derby can never have: the Kentucky Derby winner.
The drama switches from who is going to be King of the Hill to how long until someone knocks him off.
Plenty of horses have come out of the Derby looking unbeatable only to stumble in the follow up. Meanwhile the public loses interest until a Triple Crown is promised for the big finish of the Belmont Stakes.
Orb is now that celebrated horse. Many people in the racing game would like to see him win the second jewel in the Triple Crown and set up a Belmont Stakes that would capture the attention of fans beyond the hard core racing regulars.
The middle segment of any trilogy always gets the short end of the stick. There isn’t the anticipation of the opening or climax of the finale. It’s the necessary bridge between the two.
Don’t let that notion squash your enthusiasm for this important piece of the Triple Crown.
Real racing fans know the importance of this race, even if it doesn’t hold the romanticism of the Derby or the Belmont.
“There is a pretty big drop off from the Derby,” said the Peppermill’s Race and Sports Book Director Terry Cox. “You don’t get that novice factor. It’s more people who really care about horse racing.”
Cox is one who definitely cares about racing. “The Preakness is still a million dollar race,” he said, “and there are only a handful of those in America.”
Each race of the Triple Crown series is unique in its own way. The Derby tests young horses for the first time going the mile and a quarter distance. The long stretch run at Churchill Downs has wilted many horses in the shadows of the Twin Spires.
The Preakness is a bit shorter, only a mile and three-sixteenths. The turns at Pimlico are notoriously tight, as well. If a horse gets caught wide on the first turn he will be at a huge disadvantage. Thus the race is seen as favoring more speed horses than the Derby.
Like many things in life, there are unintended consequences. Trainers with speed horses will give this race a shot even with very little chance of success. Their jockeys try to steal the race on the front end. Jockeys will try to avoid that wide trip and urge their horses along to stay out of trouble. That quick pace on the front end often sets the race up for a closer. Smart jockeys on horses who come off the pace have won plenty of Preakness Stakes. Orb figures to sit behind the pace as he did in the Derby.
While many want a Triple Crown or at least the chance of one, it is often not the best betting opportunity.
So if you are looking to bigger payout than what Orb will provide, where could you find some of that value?
Maryland trainers often try to win their state’s most prestigious race. They don’t win very often, but they sometimes fill out the exacta or the trifecta with horses at long odds. If you’re betting the exotics, keep this in mind.
Some horses, who’s trainers knew they would not be ready for the Derby, kept their horses fresh and prepped for this particular race. Bernardini used this strategy in 2007 and won at odds of 12/1. The filly Rachel Alexandra did the same to beat the boys convincingly in 2009, though she was favored at 9/5.
There will be some fresh horses in this version of the Preakness, as well. Departing won the Illinois Derby, which did not have Derby qualifying points. However, it set him up well for the Preakness. Govenor Charlie had a great win in the New Mexico Derby, but trainer Bob Baffert skipped the Kentucky Derby thinking the colt needed some extra time due to a slight foot condition.
Terry Cox uses another angle. “I like quality horses who looked bad in the Derby,” he said. Some have come back to win and pay much more than they should have in doing so.
In 2007 Curlin was Horse Of The Year, but went off at 3/1 in his Preakness win after a disappointing third in the Derby. Shackleford was fourth in the Derby, but lit the board at 12/1 in the 2011 Preakness.
This year Cox favors Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents. “Whether it was the track conditions or traffic, or whatever, he just didn’t run his race in the Derby.”
Some of the top horsemen liked the look of trainer Doug O’Neill’s charge as he trained for the Derby, but he disappointed his many backers. He should be a juicy price on Saturday.
Orb will be a solid favorite, but he is along way from being a sure thing. There is a reason a horse hasn’t won the Triple Crown since 1978: It’s hard to do.
Hall of Fame trainer, the late Charlie Whittingham said it best. “Horses are like strawberries,” he said. “They go bad overnight.”
It’s tough keeping a horse in good enough condition to win three Grade I races in five weeks. Possible, but tough. The Preakness is Act II. Let’s see how it sets up Act III.