Preakness Stakes: ‘the Dream’ and Brutha Shue discuss
We are pleased to offer a conversation between my two horse hawks regarding the Preakness stakes Saturday. Before that discussion however I want to publish a comment from ‘the Dream’ that I believe is a poignant one and one that must be offered to the public. We are of the belief that other Professional horsemen feel similarly:
‘the Dream’:
I think it is worth noting that the 1st and 2nd place finishers in the derby were Hay Oats and Water trainers. With the increased security/testing I told more than a few people that this will be a test for Pletcher. On paper he should have dominated this race. It is obvious to me NOW that this factor is not only changing the game but must be considered before placing any wager.
I think it is a good thing that they are changing the game but these BIG races might become un-bet able to me.
The pace boggles my brain. Why Plaice Malice was urged to go 1:09 on the front I will never understand. Golden Soul had no shot if the pace is soft..
No excuses, on my end I am just trying to make some sort of sense on Saturday's results.
I am going to keep my money in my pocket unless I think I can beat these guys. Right now it is a guessing game.
Orb got about as good of a trip as he could and that should be to Joel Rosario's credit.
Wow!
Preakness Stakes:
Brutha Shue:
Well my numbers are only good for the 1 1/4. The $$ was to be made two weeks ago and Maryland betters are (typically) on target at picking the winner - i.e. chalk! The nags from the
the Dream:
Please, no more Golden Soul references. If anyone picked that horse I am happy for them. As far as handicapping I would like to know why someone picked it. The pace in the derby was a gift for that horse (45 & 1:09) and the ONLY way he could have hit the board. Not to mention this is a sorry crop of 3 year olds in my opinion.
Anyway, Drew I too like Departing but I am skeptical. The days of bringing Mojo to these G-1 Big races seems to be over. As witnessed in last years Breeders Cup as Baffert went 0-26 at his home track and Pletcher’s No show in the Derby with 5 entries. Whether you believe it or not it seems that when there is increased security and or testing the big guys don’t show up. To top off that statement the first, second and fourth finishers in the Derby were Hay, Oats and Water trainers. (by the way if they would just put the Vets name who is treating the horse in the racing form it would help eliminate cheating all together)
I think Departing is a very nice horse it is up to speculation whether he was aided in the Illinois Derby with first time Lasix and extra sauce. I would tend to think NOT because the horse is a gelding and they have no reason to get impatient with this horse since he will never hit the breeding shed. His future is on the track only and there are plenty of opportunities for him to take down some serious races at age 4 and 5.
In my opinion there is only one way to play this race. Partial Wheel ORB and DEPARTING in first and second in the tri/super and use others underneath. As a back up ticket Key ORB on top and use others underneath for the tri/super. You can still hit both tickets and it will be fairly cheap. If Departing wins over ORB you still got a chance to hit meal size ticket.
The only problem with this bet is everyone else is going to do the same thing.
Horses to use underneath??? Who knows?
Oxbow was set up perfect I think you got his best shot last time. Is it good enough this time?
Golden Cents with Govenor Charlie in the race he should be stalking. I just don’t know if he is good enough even if he didn’t fire last time.
Mylute just like Oxbow he ran his race last time and couldn’t get there.
It’smyluckyday was a darling for many of the thorgraph fans since he bounced in Florida Derby. He will be under bet this time.
Will take charge had a bad trip in the derby and probably needed the race. He is a sleeper.
I am still working through it but this is going to be my approach.
What do you do with Govenor Charlie??
Brutha Shue:
I think DEPARTING (6-1) is gonna be bet down way below his current 6-1 odds. I think this whole bunch is all gonna head to the front to try and get away from ORB (1-1) - that's the only to beat him. But I do think ORB will win regardless. I just don't see how to make any $$ here Dean. Just not much value here - especially with only nine horses running. And as of this writing, showers are predicted for Saturday in Baltimore. And if so, then we all know who da mudder is - ORB!
So here’s my choice’s:
#20 WPS #4 (Departing): $60
10$ Tri Box: 1-4-9 (Orb, Departing, Itsmyluckyday) $60
Total wager: $120
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