Race 1: 3-2-6-5
Race 2: 6-7-5
Race 3: 6-5-2
Race 4: 5-9-12-2-3-4
Race 5: 6-9-4-1
Race 6 Grade I Humana Distaff
Skye Diamonds (4): She is the best when she has some speed to run at and she did not get that last time but she will here. Third off the layoff she is primed for a big effort.
Lewis Bay (5): Loved the way Irad rode her in the Madison taking back and making one sustained run with all the pace signed on here that is the style that will likely win this race.
Ivy Bell (3): Made the first race under Pletcher a very impressive winning one and will be in the mix here with another step forward.
American Gal (8): Was so game in the Grade I Madison only losing by a neck off a 10 month layoff she is one to consider here however coming back on less than a month’s rest I’m concerned she will bounce off that effort.
Race 7 Grade II Distaff Turf Mile
La Coronel (11): She has always been better at the mile and cutback should be to her liking with the lack of speed she will have a tactical advantage here. The horses she lost to in her last race were very classy and she will get some class relief. They have to bet her today.
On Leave (9): Was left with too much to do in her last over a Gulf course that was not kind to horses coming from off the pace that day.
Res Ipsa (7): Has shown to be tactical so I’m unsure why she was so far back in the Honey Fox. She will be second off the layoff for connections who point to this meet and this day specifically.
Race 8 Grade I Churchill Downs Sprint
Awesome Slew (10): He ran second in this race and if he chooses to go here over Friday’s race he is once again live and should receive those solid fractions in front of him to make a dent late.
Imperial Hint (3): Very fast horse who will be looking to take them gate to wire. There is other pace presence in here but we will see if they are fast enough to keep up early or late.
Whitmore (1): Seems to have regained his form since returning from the Breeders Cup and will be in good position to stalk Imperial Hint and make one run coming for home.
Race 9 Grade II American Turf
Tigers Rule (7): Had a disastrous trip in the Transylvania Stakes and deserves another chance in this spot at what should be a square price.
Maraud (10): Had absolutely nothing in the Transylvania but has been too constant not to give another chance. Being in the one hole that day might have taken its toll.
River Boyne (6): Since breaking his maiden he has improved in each race capturing The Pasadena very impressively in his last. He will now take on the east coast turf talent.
Rushing fall (12): Superstar filly is one of a few Cross entered for both days. If she runs in this race she deserves a look at a better price then she’ll be Friday.
Race 10 Grade III Pat Day Mile
Sporting Chance (11): Has always been more of a one turn horse and I am happy to see him pass up on the Derby with the chance to run in a race he can win.
Restoring Hope (12): Will be better suited as a one turn horse. Takes the blinks off and turns back for Bob and Mike.
Madison’s Luna (7): He could be any kind of freak after his last race which was visually impressive. He’s one to watch going forward.
National Flag (1): Showed a new dimension when being able to come from off the pace last out. Love to see Pletcher stick with Prat in this spot.
Mask (8): Was once talked about as a ligament derby contender before getting hurt this is the first step towards something bigger down the line.
Race 11 Grade I Turf Classic
Beach Patrol (10): If he is ready to run his best race off the layoff which he typically does then he is going to be VERY difficult to beat today and one of the more likely winners on the card.
Synchrony (7): Has really turned the corner after his break this summer and fall with another step forward. He is a major player.
Yoshida (9): The jockey change to Jose Ortiz was needed. I personally think he is a perfect fit for this horse.
Race 12 Grade I Kentucky Derby
Audible (5): He has improved with each and every start and comes into the race with the patterns of many of the past winners. With his inside draw he should secure a spot on the rail around the first turn and start picking horses off turning for home.
Bolt d’ Oro (11): In the SA Derby he regressed a little off his big effort in the San Felipe which is ok with me and had me believing he will peak on Derby Day. This race will give him a pace to run at which he did not have in the SA Derby.
Justify (7): The monster of the race making his 4th start in the Derby and trying to break the Apollo curse. While he does look like a monster he will have to answer many questions in the derby but must be used on all tickets.
Vino Rosso (18): Took a giant step forward in the Wood Memorial and will have to do so again here, however he has made a great impression on the track in the weeks leading up to the derby.
Mendelson (14): Will try to be the first European based horse to win the derby but he is different, he has the pedigree. Watch to see how the filly Rayya runs in the Oaks on Friday as he trounced her in the UAE Derby.
Hofburg (9): We were on him long before the FL Derby and now he’s quickly becoming the buzz horse. He will likely be over bet.
Race 13: 11-9-3
Race 14: 7-4-8-5-6
Pick 5 Race 3-7
2,5,6/ 2,3,4,5,9,12/1,4,6,9/ 3,4,5,8 = $ 144
Pick 4 Race 5-8
1,4,6,9/ 3,4,5,8/9,11/1,3,5,7,10 = $80
Pick 5 Race 8- 12
1,3,5,10/3,6,7,10,11,12/ 1,5,7,8,9,11,12,13,14/10/ 5,7,11 = $324
Pick 4 9-12
3,6,7,10,11,12/ 1,5,7,8,9,11,12,13,14/7,10/ 5,7,11,14 = $216
Pick 5 10-14
1,5,7,8,9,11,12,13,14/7,10/ 5,7,11,14/ 9,11/ 4,5,6,7,8 = $360
Derby Trifecta Race 12
50 cent trifecta = 5,7,11/ 5,7,9,11,14,18/ 4,5,6,7,9,10,11,12 14,18 = $60
Box 5,7,11 = $6 dollars per dollar
*A lot of deep competitive fields I recommend playing with partners and using as many horses as budget allows one hit on a pick 4/5 on this day will give you a profitable weekend *