Justify needs to win The Belmont on Saturday to become just the 2nd Triple Crown winner in the last 39-years. Matthew Pappis takes a look at the entire card for Saturday in Elmont, New York.
Race 1: 7-1-3-6
Race 2 Easy Goer Stakes
High North (8): Looked loaded turning for home in the Peter Pan and just stopped. He should be improved on the turn back.
Mask (2): Willing to throw out his last over the slop at CH Downs and give him another shot here. Second off the layoff.
Dark Vader (7): This is a more desirable distance then he ran in the Sunland derby. He ran big last time out.
Race 3 Grade I Ogden Phipps
Abel Tasman (6): Had a very odd ride into a speed bias on Oaks day and she had no chance. Like her a lot today.
Pacific Wind (4): She has become a new horse since entering the Brown barn. Let’s see if she’s up to the class test.
Ivy Bell (2): Ran big in the Humana Distaff and now stretches out for the first time. Interesting.
Race 4 Grade I Acorn
Talk Veuve to Me (7): Ran huge in the right Belles and love her to run another big one. She has the look of a special horse.
Monomoy Girl (3): She’s a special horse and undefeated but she will be 3/5 here and am going to take a shot against her at the shorter distance.
Gio Game (4): Finally put all her talent together last out at CH. This is a step up in class but the talent is there.
Race 5 Grade II Brooklyn
Hard Study (3): Third off the layoff for Pletcher who always points to this day. He thrives at Belmont and will have no issue with the distance.
Outplay (8): The other Pletcher horse in the field and the one they will have to run down. He has some solid races going longer and always thought it’s what he wanted.
War Story (9): The reigning champion should be in the mix with this bunch and always puts in his run.
Race 6 Grade II Jaipur
Disco Partner (5): Had a very wide trip over a soft turf course which he didn’t like at Keeneland. He should rebound here over a track he loves.
Pocket Change (3): The new shooter to the division. Don’t see him being 10/1 with many questions of horses coming back from Dubai and bad form.
Pure Sensation (2): The other Clement in the race has won this in the past and posts back numbers good enough to win here.
Race 7 Grade II Woody Stephens
Strike Power (12): Gets back to what he wants to do which is sprinting. This race sets up perfect for him to stalk from the outside.
World of Trouble (11): Another who gets back to what he should be doing, sprinting.
Beautiful Shot (7): Ran huge in his last at Santa Anita and should sit a good trip here.
Race 8 Grade I Just a Game
Proctors Ledge (5): Ran a big one to win the Distaff Turf Mile on the Derby undercard and will likely get ignored on the board.
Lull (4): There is not much speed in here. Look for Jose to send and try to steal this one gate to wire coming in fresh off the Honey Fox win.
A Raving Beauty (7): Was super impressive in her first start stateside but horses typically regress a little off big first efforts in the states.
Race 9 Grade I Met Mile
Good Samaritan (5): Have been waiting for him to try the one turn mile configuration. There is no way he goes off 10/1, a bad morning line.
Bee Jersey (10): Has been in terrific form this year and should sit a great trip from the outside post. See if they can run him down.
Awesome Slew (11): Last win came at the one turn mile. He always puts in his run but will need some pace to run at.
Mind Your Biscuits (1): Comes off a big win in Dubai. Would have liked to see the connections give him more time to recover and start a summer campaign. Against it today from the 1 hole.
Race 10 Grade I Manhattan
Alexios Komenenos (4): He has kept big company overseas. Too high of a morning line in my opinion presents some great value.
Sadler’s Joy (8): Not a fan of the jockey switch. Julian fit this horse like a glove but there’s enough speed in here to set it up for him.
Beach Patrol (10): The one to beat for CB. He likes to sit right off the pace and was forced to set the pace off a 10 month layoff. It was too much to ask.
Robert Bruce (1): I don’t know much about his races in Chile but he beat a decent field in the Fort Marcy and is 7 for 7 lifetime. It’s hard to ignore undefeated.
Race 11 Grade I Belmont
Vino Rosso (8): Had an absolute awful trip from the get go in the Derby and will be super live here for a trainer who excels going Derby to Belmont. The owner has gone on the record saying Nobel Indy will push Justify to set it up for him. He’s one of a few who should relish the distance.
Hofburg (4): Another who had a bad trip in the derby, the longer for him the better it will be. His last work on the Oklahoma was super impressive.
Justify (1): Let’s not go overboard here. While he’s my third pick, he will be on every pick 4 or 5 I play. He has done nothing wrong, winning all five of his career starts. A special horse but I am still dubious he can get the distance if he’s forced to be used early from the rail.
Blended Citizen (10): My big price that will be on all plays. He has the win over the track and should enjoy the distance. One concern with him is his style doesn’t typically win the Belmont.
Race 12: 5 -11- 3-9
Race 13: 3-6-1-9-8
Race 1 Pick 5
50 cents : 1,3,6,7/8/ 4,6 / 1,3,4,5,7/2,3,8,9 = $80
50 cents : 1,3,7/ 2,5,6,7,8/ 6/ 1,3,4,5,7 / 2,3,8,9 = $150
Race 5 Pick 3
1 dollar: 1, 3, 6, 7/ all/ 11, 12 = $ 64
Race 7 NYRA BETS Pick 5
50 cents: 11,12/ 3,4,5,7/ 1,4,5,6,9,10,11/ 4,8,10/ 1,4,8,10 = $336
Race 8 Pick 4
50 cents: 3,4,5,7,8/ 1,4,5,6,9,10,11/4,8,10/1,4,8,10 = $210
Race 10 Pick 4
50 cents: 1,4,8,9,10,13/1,4,8,10/ 3,5,9,11/ 1,3,6 = $144